Mersman Political Blog

Thursday, April 10, 2008

Clinton Fights to Reduce Expectations as Polls Tighten in PA

Barack Obama has been slowly gaining ground on Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania and the Clinton campaign on Wednesday worked aggressively to reduce expectations in the state.

Senator Clinton previously held what was thought to be an insurmountable lead in Pennsylvania and it has shrunk down to a near tie.

There have been nine polls conducted since the beginning of April and the Real Clear Politics average shows Senator Clinton still has a 7.9 percent lead.

An American Research Group poll, however, found there to be a statistical tie between Obama and Clinton. Another poll conducted by Public Policy Polling (PPP) showed Obama had a 2 point edge over Clinton in Pennsylvania.

Clinton previously held double-digit leads over Obama in Pennsylvania, which is why they are working so hard to reduce expectations.

“The fact that we still maintain a lead after Sen. Obama spent six days here and got the backing of Sen. Casey (D-Penn.), and in light of being outspent, I think it is remarkable that we still maintain a lead. We don't think we have any weaknesses in this state. It has been said before and it bears repeating: we are being outspent financially." said T.J. Rooney, who is the state's Democratic Party chairman.

Senator Clinton’s aides say it is remarkable that she is even hanging on in a state where her opponent is outspending her by as much as three-to-one.

"He has been willing even to put his bowling skills on display in an effort to do well here," Howard Wolfson said.

Obama has been campaigning differently in Pennsylvania. Obama has been doing more town hall meetings and smaller events in place of the large rallies with up to thousands of audience members.

Obama has gone into factories, grabbed a hotdog at a local restaurant, was willing to make a fool of himself bowling, and has been more hands-on in this effort to win over white, blue-collar Democrats.

Pennsylvania is similar to Texas and Ohio where Clinton had a large lead and Obama was able to cut it down to single-digits. Obama did not end up winning Texas or Ohio but he still has a chance to win in Pennsylvania and he is working hard to accomplish that.

Clinton needs to win big in Pennsylvania in order to keep her campaign viable. Pennsylvania is a state where Clinton had hoped to pick up extra delegates. Obama coming within a few points would make it a virtual tie in pledged delegates.

A small margin of victory for Clinton will still be seen as a loss and a victory for Obama. Obama winning the state would certainly be a major comeback and a deadly blow to the Clinton campaign.

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